‘Modi wave’ has enough firepower to last many polls

With the tiresome elections in five states, especially Uttar Pradesh, now over, the political discourse has shifted gear to the poll results, which would be known by the afternoon of March 11, two days before the festival of Holi.

While exit polls have given the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) edge over other parties, barring Punjab, the poll outcome would necessarily be analysed and discussed in the context of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Undoubtedly BJP’s tallest mass leader to date, Modi had undertaken whirlwind tour of all the poll-bound states of UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur, over the last two months to consolidate the party’s vote bank. He had invested maximum energies in the crucial state of UP, which has 403 assembly segments spread over 5 different geographical regions.

Modi was not a candidate in any of these polls, yet it was ‘Modi versus all’ in all these states. In the context of demonetisation, the polls were seen through the prism of a virtual referendum on Modi’s three-year rule at the Centre and yes demonetisation.

BJP has been able to sweep all the local bodies polls conducted across the states after demonetisation announcement on November 8, 2016. This amply indicated that the majority of people had supported the purported anti-corruption move and that the general perception of Modi’s personal integrity remained uncompromised.

A positive poll outcome would further elevate Modi’s aura and silence his critics, yet any setbacks would unlikely diminish his stature.

In any case, BJP is projected to considerably improve its tally in UP, where it had merely won 48 seats in 2012.

In Punjab, the BJP-SAD government is in for a rout, primarily due to SAD’s bad perception and the drug menace. This would actually be a blessing in disguise for BJP to cultivate its own path for future elections without alliance.

The truth is, Modi, whether once concedes or not, is the tallest national political leader in India today. Congress president Sonia Gandhi stayed away from public glare in these polls and is unlikely to resume his active political role, purportedly due to ill health.

Fortunately or unfortunately, there is currently a dearth of political leaders, both in BJP and opposition parties, who could match up to Modi and transcend the regional and language barriers in mass appeal. His great oratory and communication skills, coupled with his active social media footprint and personal rapport with leading international politicians, add a bonus for him.

In UP poll, Modi was the main object of attack for the opposition leaders, whether it was Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) or Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). All election strategies were fundamentally woven around Modi. For BJP, he was the mascot and for opposition he was the main stumbling block. Modi was the common denominator for both the camps.

If one were to analyse election speeches of prominent leaders, the reference to ‘Modi’ or Prime Minister would fetch the highest frequency in usage, whether to  praise him or vilify him.

In all fairness, it could be said the euphemistic ‘Modi wave’ is very much around and it still has enough firepower to last very many elections to come in the future, naysayers’ belief notwithstanding.