'Unconventional' CM Yogi cracking whip in UP!

The unconventional style of governance being introduced by new chief minister of Uttar Pradesh Adityanath Yogi has already started to make the top brass of state officials jittery.

His impromptu inspection of the UP secretariat and police station in the last two days is not only making media headlines, but establishing his credentials a leader, who is out to change the status quo. The officials are still bracing up to keep pace with Yogi and measure up to his high expectations of delivery.

His stern directives to officials regarding law and order and his own habitual long working hours are proof enough that Yogi is not carved out for a beaten track in government.

Expect him to be different and follow the management concept of ‘disruptive innovation’, one who has just started scripting a ‘new normal’ in governance. Officials, better brace for more such ‘disruptions’, welcome though, in days to come!

It would be in the interest of the bureaucracy and administration to realign their work ethics to that of Yogi, who himself is an unlikely CM, being a reverred seer and adhering to strict disciplinarian regimen. His never say die attitude over subjects of public safety and security would only come handy to him in his rule.

The change is now palpable. In Lucknow, police has become more visible and visibly active. Patrols have since increased and cops’ alacrity in checking anti-social elements, traffic violators and eve teasers is getting kudos from general public, especially women.

The same police, which used to be charge with dancing to the tunes of political masters to retain plum postings, is working to reclaim public spaces from gangsters through raids and roundups.

Yogi era: UP top bureaucracy, police due for reshuffle

With Gorakhpur Member of Parliament (MP) Yogi Adityanath taking over as the 21st chief minister of Uttar Pradesh on Sunday, the possibility of mass transfer of top state administrative and police officials are high, sooner than later.

The change of guard in UP is always accompanied by large scale reshuffle among the top echelons of the state bureaucracy to post select brass of officials on key posts and government departments.

The new dispensation understandably wants to post its choicest officials on significant posts, including chief secretary, director general of police (DGP), principal secretaries and secretaries of departments, directorates etc.

The incoming government justifies such reshuffle as implementing its blueprint for faster economic development and sprucing the law and order apparatus in the state.

Yogi’s predecessor Akhilesh Yadav, on becoming the UP CM on March 15, 2012, had reshuffled over 1,000 senior administrative and police officials within a month of taking oath of office.

His predecessor Mayawati, after taking over as the 17th CM of the state on May 13, 2007, had shunted over 200 senior IAS and IPS cadre officials within 3-4 days of assuming charge.

Meanwhile, the Yogi government is currently taking stock of the situation and preparing a list of officials and departments, which would be reshuffled.

Yogi is 4th successive non-MLA CM of UP

Yogi Adityanath, sitting Gorakhpur Member of Parliament (MP), has become the 4^th successive chief minister of Uttar Pradesh to rise to the top post, while still not being a member of either house of the state legislature.

His three immediate predecessors viz. Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav were all MPs, when they had taken oath of office in the state.

Displaced Samajwadi Party (SP) president Mulayam had become the 15^th CM on August 29, 2003, while being the Lok Sabha member from Sambhal parliamentary constituency during his 3^rd term in CM’s office.

As law stipulated him to become a member of the UP legislature within six months, Mulayam had contested UP assembly by-election from Gunnaur assembly constituency in January 2004 and won by a margin of over 90 percent votes polled.

In the 15^th UP assembly (2007-2012), Mayawati had become the 17^th CM on May 13, 2007, while she was the sitting MP from Akbarpur (reserved) constituency

She, however, chose to become a member of the UP legislative council and getting elected to the upper house.

Later, in the 16^th UP assembly (2012-2017), when Mulayam’s son Akhilesh Yadav had led his party to victory in the 2012 UP election, he was an MP from Kannauj constituency.

After taking over as the 20^th UP CM on March 15, 2012, he followed the MLC route to become a member of UP legislature rather than contesting assembly bypoll. His wife Dimple had later contested the Kannauj seat vacated by him. She went on to win the bypoll.

Now, Yogi Adityanath has become the 21^st CM while serving as a Lok Sabha member from Gorakhpur.

‘Lok Bhawan’ conceived by Akhilesh Yadav (AY) to serve Yogi Adityanath (YA)

The loss in Uttar Pradesh election is only one disappointment that outgoing chief minister Akhilesh Yadav is nursing.

To see his successor and arch rival during the state electioneering, Yogi Adityanath, enter his plush office on the 5th floor of a new and imposing state secretariat building, which was originally conceived and expedited by him, is among the hardest letdowns in the context of losing the UP poll to BJP.

The new secretariat, which was modelled on UP legislature edifice, is situated opposite the historical UP assembly precincts.

One of his flagship projects, the new secretariat building ‘Lok Bhawan’ was conceived by outgoing CM Akhilesh Yadav to house the UP CM’s Office (CMO), besides offices of senior cabinet ministers and bureaucrats.

The building took about three years and incurred over Rs 600 crore to acquire semblance of completion in October 2016.

Although, a few government programmes were organised therein last year, the remaining civil works continued to be underway, while the CMO operated from the existing secretariat building ‘Shastri Bhawan’.

On October 3, then ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) president Mulayam Singh Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav had jointly inaugurated ‘Lok Bhawan’ with much fanfare in the hope the regime would trump anti-incumbency and retain power in the 2017 UP poll.

Lok Bhawan is equipped with state-of-art communication and security systems, besides auditorium, media arcade, underground parking, conference facilities etc to cater the needs of a modern and techno savvy state government.

After the inaugural ceremony, Akhilesh Yadav had held his first cabinet meeting in the new office with the hope that the ‘Samajwadis’ (socialists) would continue to occupy the seat of power in Lok Bhawan; a wish which never came true.

The existing five-storey secretariat building, also referred to as ‘Annexxe’ has been serving as the CMO for decades now. The CMO is situated on the fifth floor of Shastri Bhawan and affectionately termed as ‘Pancham Tal’ (5th floor) by the media and unofficially in the corridors of power to indicate seat of real power in UP.

Interestingly, the new secretariat also houses CMO on the 5th floor of B block. Lok Bhawan comprises three blocks A, B and C, spanning an area of 6.3 acres. It consists of a 600 seat auditorium and is equipped with infrastructure to house over 1,300 officials and employees at any given time.

Since, certain civil works are still on, the new building would be fully completed in another few months.

Modi cultivated trust among Muslim voters in UP

There are very many firsts associated with 2017 Uttar Pradesh poll.

In this election, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) clocked its highest ever tally of 325 seats in UP, while Congress hit its nadir with 7, a massive trickle down from its equally dismal tally of 28 in 2012.

However, the most startling feature was the victory of BJP in constituencies with a significant Muslim population of almost 25 percent, especially in western UP districts.

Erstwhile, Muslims have been reckoned as a monolithic voting bloc, one that votes tactically to keep BJP from power, since the outfit is perceived as communal by the community.

In successive poll, minorities have predominantly aligned with Samajwadi Party (SP), although a section of voters also support Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

Together, dalits and Muslims constitute 40 percent of the UP population, which makes them an attractive bloc for parties of all hues, especially to so called ‘secular’ camps.

In run up to the 2017 poll, the opposition had dismissed the euphemistic ‘Modi wave’ that had earlier helped BJP win the 2014 Lok Sabha poll. Besides, the parties were hoping demonetisation would work against Modi due to the hardships faced by the people over cash squeeze and loss of livelihood.

In this backdrop, there was a perception that minorities votes could get divided between SP and BSP in the triangular UP contest. Yet, no pollster or political pundit could crystal gaze that Muslims could vote for the Saffron outfit.

The opposition parties had tried hard to woo minorities, while handing out covert and overt warning to the community against the prospects of BJP winning UP poll.

In fact, no one could conclusively fathom the undercurrent of growing support for Modi among dalits and a section of Muslims, especially women folks. This section apparently was looking forward to more than mere tokenism and words of sympathy by their political masters.

The distribution of millions of free gas connections by the Modi government had already altered the rules of the game at the grassroots without giving any outward indications.

Such beneficiaries included poor Muslim and dalit households as well, who had transformed into mute supporters for Modi, while mainstream media and senior editors kept writing from the portals of their newsrooms or taking opinion from equally clueless political pundits and pollsters.

At the same time, BJP had taken a tough stance on ‘triple talaq’, one which was quite different from that of the ‘secular’ brigade for the fear of angering the clergy. The perceptible pro-Muslim women stand endeared BJP among the Muslim women, especially belonging to the poor background.

The ground reality is, and fortunately so, Muslims are now rejecting tokenism and want to redress the tougher challenges of employment opportunities. They are ready to give BJP a chance and forge a relationship of trust.

The hitherto narrative of the opposition to tar BJP and Modi with communalism has failed and is unlikely to recoup anytime soon.

The overt attempts by the opposition to woo minorities had also resulted in counter-polarisation transcending dalits, forward castes and backward castes (BC) in favour of BJP.

For long, Muslims have seen BJP and particularly Modi through an angled vision, primarily due to the negative portrayal by their opponents for political capital.

The days of playing the secular card seem numbered for good and the minorities have decided to move on.

‘Secular’ parties in disarray after UP poll debacle

The stupendous victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh poll has not only reestablished the credentials of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the country’s tallest political leader today, it has amply indicated to the opposition camp to either perish or expeditiously reframe their political messaging to convince electorate about their agendas and ideologies.

The slur of communalism and anti-dalit heaped on BJP and especially Modi has simply not worked for the opposition in a highly fragmented and heterogeneous constituency of UP, which has a large population of dalits, other backward castes (OBC) and Muslims.

In UP, BJP even breached the 3/4^th majority mark by scooping 325 of the total 403 seats and thus decimating the opposition.

In run up to the state poll, the opposition parties had harked back on their previous and time tested attack on Modi hoping to replicate the success of Bihar, where BJP was trumped by the tripartite alliance of Janata Dal (United)-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)- Congress, in UP. They did not realise that the ground realities in UP were quite different and that BJP had already learnt its lessons.

No wonder that the top opposition leaders, including UP chief minister and Samajwadi Party (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav, Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati, in their rallies, explicitly and implicitly cautioned the electorate against BJP and Modi, especially minorities and dalits.

Mayawati went a step further alleging BJP would quash reservations if it came to power. She also raised issues of alleged atrocities on dalits and dalit students.

In addition, the opposition had over the past several months jointly and severally cornered the Modi dispensation over alleged intolerance in society, raised suspicion over surgical strike across the Line of Control (LoC), supported freedom of speech in largely Left dominated campuses in the context of Jammu & Kashmir and most prominently demonetisation.

Although, BJP continued to win local bodies polls across the country, the opposition parties maintained that it was a mismanaged and uncalled for decision, which had hit the poor and informal sectors hard.

The stark reality is Modi’s opponents refused to remove their dark tinted glasses and to acknowledge the general sentiments on such issues, while upholding their self-righteous narrative over nationalism, freedom of speech, minorities’ right etc.

In this backdrop, the overt and occasionally brazen wooing of the minority votes by SP, BSP and Congress by perceptibly disregarding the majority community, resulted in counter-polarisation, which ultimately proved to be more potent than polarisation, which had always hitherto paid rich dividends to these political parties. 

Interestingly, BJP has managed to clock wins even in constituencies, which have sizeable Muslim population of at least 25 percent. So much so, Mayawati on the day of counting on March 11 alleged that electronic voting machines (EVMs) had been tampered with, since BJP had won in several Muslim dominated areas as well, although it had not fielded any Muslim candidate

The UP poll busted the myth of the Muslims as monolithic vote bloc, thus disrupting the poll math of many a party.

The writing on the wall is unambiguous now that the people do not want to be taken for a ride anymore at the whims and fancies of their political masters.

For long, vote banks, especially of dalits and Muslims have been treated as hostage for vested political interests, either by promising preferential treatment/sops or by invoking fear in their minds. 

These parties, claiming to be the champion of their rights, have done precious little for these communities other than mere tokenism. Such parties have on most occasions impeded attempts for bringing these communities in the mainstream, while at the same time highlighting their purported alienation for galvanising their vote.

It would be in the interest of these so called ‘secular’ political parties to now reframe their strategies in the light of the changing milieu, wherein their old and weathered definition of what is secular and not, needs to evolve.

People are no longer interested in their fossilised dogmas that seek to dictate their destiny nor are they looking for largesse at the cost of their future generations.

Will Akhilesh continue as SP chief after UP debacle?

Less than 24 hours of the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) being voted out of power by BJP aided by a virtual ‘Modi tsunami’, dissents have already started to question the continuation of Akhilesh Yadav as the party president after the Uttar Pradesh poll rout.

The SP booked a humiliating loss with its seats dropping from 224 in 2012 to 47 in 2017.

The party had put behind a bitter power feud before the UP poll process, hoping to retain power in the most crucial state.

In backdrop of power struggle, SP president Mulayam Singh Yadav was removed from his post and was replaced by his son and UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav.

Later, Mulayam’s younger brother Shivpal Singh Yadav and his aides was also sidelined. Several ministers were denied poll tickets, including Ambika Chaudhary, Narad Rai and Vijay Mishra.

Talking to a news channel, SP legislator and Mulayam’s confidante Madhukar Jaitley today said Mulayam was the founding president of SP and his honour be restored. Without taking any names, he observed in politics, a leader is responsible for both win and defeat.

Another Mulayam’s confidante, Dr C P Rai has advised Akhilesh to honour his own words and restore ‘Netaji’ as the party president. Before UP polling, Akhilesh had declared he wanted to UP election and then hand over the party reins to his father and displaced party president, Mulayam.

Yesterday, Shivpal, commenting on loss, had noted it was not the loss of the socialist party, but of arrogance, hinting at Akhilesh, who had been running the party rather arbitrarily alongside his cousin uncle Ram Gopal Yadav.

However, Akhilesh never anticipated SP would be voted out of power and he would face such humiliating defeat even after tying up with Congress to stop the Modi juggernaut, although both Mulayam and Shivpal had spoken against the alliance.

In the end, SP and Congress could win only 47 and 7 seats this time compared to their 2012 tally of 224 and 28 respectively. BJP, against its tally of 48 in 2012, secured 325 seats of the total 403 assembly seats, their best poll performance ever in UP.

Meanwhile, things would only get messier for SP after Holi and with a new BJP dispensation in power.

At the same time, it would be interesting to watch as to who dons the mantle of the leader of opposition in the UP legislative assembly, as Akhilesh is not a member of the legislative assembly. He did not fight the election and is a sitting member of legislative council (Vidhan Parishad).

‘Modi tsunami’ uproots opposition camps

Over the past several months and in run up to the 2017 Uttar Pradesh election, the opposition parties had begun to weave a political narrative of tarring Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its mascot Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the backdrop of demonetisation, alleged intolerance in campuses and its backchannel affiliation with RSS.

This was being done for electoral capital by subtly playing up the minority and dalit themes with election round the corner and preempt emergence of BJP in the Hindi heartland, which is the most crucial state.

The political adversaries of BJP and Modi probably held the belief that harping on such erstwhile time tested agenda would galvanise the dalits, minorities, backwards and the ‘secular’ brigade against the saffron outfit and impede ‘Modi wave’ from winning UP.

It was no sooner than the electioneering started in January for polling in February-March, the top leadership of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party-Congress combine launched frontal attacks on Modi over demonetisation, which they termed as an anti-poor move.

In their public meetings, they vociferously communicated that demonetisation had rendered the disadvantaged sections of society jobless and cashless and that they ought to punish BJP and Modi for their arbitrary act. Former PM Manmohan Singh, while speaking in Parliament, had even termed the decision as “monumental disaster” and claimed it would pull down India’s growth by 2 percent this fiscal.

The opposition parties reminded people of their hardships during the 2-3 months of demonetisation and the long lines of people at commercial banks to withdraw cash or exchange their holding of demonetised cash. They earnestly hoped people would line up to vote against BJP on polling days.

Come March 11, when counting of votes for UP started, all such hopes came crashing down and instead BSP, Congress and SP were forced to bite the dust and lick their wounds.

The ‘Modi wave’ had uprooted their camps beyond their even nightmarish expectations.

While, BJP improved its tally to 325 from 48 in 2012 UP poll, BSP crashed to 19 from 80, SP-Congress alliance dropped to 54 from their combined tally of 252 in the last state election.

The opposition parties miserably failed to take cue from the local bodies polls in successive states post demonetisation, which BJP won handsomely state after state, even in states where BJP had always been a fringe player, such as Odisha.

While, much of the analysis for the landslide victory of BJP would fall in days to come, the party has definitely managed to corner a larger share of other parties’ core vote bank, while successfully retaining its own.

The organisational skills of BJP president and Modi confidante Amit Shah once again proved his utility for the party.

BJP attracted a large chunk of non-Jatav dalit votes from BSP. It managed to evoke traction of non-Yadav backward caste votes, such as Lodhs and Kurmis in this poll. Even Muslims seemed to have voted for BJP given the party’s sterling performance in even minority dominated pockets of the state. This in fact prompted BSP president Mayawati to allege that the electronic voting machiens (EVMs) had been tampered with. She even demanded countermanding of poll and sought fresh election in UP.

However, the opposition were quite right in their proclamation that there was no ‘Modi wave’. Little did they realise the wave had morphed into a Tsunami. They could never estimate the strong undercurrent, which actually was more potent than the euphemistic wave itself that helped BJP and Modi coast to victory.

‘Modi wave’ has enough firepower to last many polls

With the tiresome elections in five states, especially Uttar Pradesh, now over, the political discourse has shifted gear to the poll results, which would be known by the afternoon of March 11, two days before the festival of Holi.

While exit polls have given the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) edge over other parties, barring Punjab, the poll outcome would necessarily be analysed and discussed in the context of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Undoubtedly BJP’s tallest mass leader to date, Modi had undertaken whirlwind tour of all the poll-bound states of UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur, over the last two months to consolidate the party’s vote bank. He had invested maximum energies in the crucial state of UP, which has 403 assembly segments spread over 5 different geographical regions.

Modi was not a candidate in any of these polls, yet it was ‘Modi versus all’ in all these states. In the context of demonetisation, the polls were seen through the prism of a virtual referendum on Modi’s three-year rule at the Centre and yes demonetisation.

BJP has been able to sweep all the local bodies polls conducted across the states after demonetisation announcement on November 8, 2016. This amply indicated that the majority of people had supported the purported anti-corruption move and that the general perception of Modi’s personal integrity remained uncompromised.

A positive poll outcome would further elevate Modi’s aura and silence his critics, yet any setbacks would unlikely diminish his stature.

In any case, BJP is projected to considerably improve its tally in UP, where it had merely won 48 seats in 2012.

In Punjab, the BJP-SAD government is in for a rout, primarily due to SAD’s bad perception and the drug menace. This would actually be a blessing in disguise for BJP to cultivate its own path for future elections without alliance.

The truth is, Modi, whether once concedes or not, is the tallest national political leader in India today. Congress president Sonia Gandhi stayed away from public glare in these polls and is unlikely to resume his active political role, purportedly due to ill health.

Fortunately or unfortunately, there is currently a dearth of political leaders, both in BJP and opposition parties, who could match up to Modi and transcend the regional and language barriers in mass appeal. His great oratory and communication skills, coupled with his active social media footprint and personal rapport with leading international politicians, add a bonus for him.

In UP poll, Modi was the main object of attack for the opposition leaders, whether it was Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) or Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). All election strategies were fundamentally woven around Modi. For BJP, he was the mascot and for opposition he was the main stumbling block. Modi was the common denominator for both the camps.

If one were to analyse election speeches of prominent leaders, the reference to ‘Modi’ or Prime Minister would fetch the highest frequency in usage, whether to  praise him or vilify him.

In all fairness, it could be said the euphemistic ‘Modi wave’ is very much around and it still has enough firepower to last very many elections to come in the future, naysayers’ belief notwithstanding.

Akhilesh must win UP to avert reigniting SP feud

With 2017 Uttar Pradesh poll process over, all eyes are now set on March 11, when counting of votes takes place, thus clearing the decks for the swearing in of a new dispensation.

While, election results would be keenly watched by all the political parties and their mandarins given high expectations of winning the poll, UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav has the highest stake in the state election result.

A victory means not only retaining power, but proving to his detractors that the 2012 poll sweep by SP was not a fluke and that he possessed the capacity and political wisdom to win elections even on his own and without the tutelage of his father and party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav.

However, a loss would multiply his woes and give a chance to the disgruntled faction of SP, including some in his own family, to heap the blame on him and question his political decisions, such as pre-poll tie up with Congress and giving it 105 seats to contest, although the latter party had won only 28 seats in 2012.

Much of the second half of 2016 calendar, SP was down firefighting internal party and family feud. The feud culminated with the removal of Mulayam as SP president and Akhilesh replacing him on January 1, 2017.

Recently, Akhilesh’s step mother Sadhna Gupta, in an interview to a news channel, termed as unfortunate the divide in family and lamented action taken against Mulayam and his younger brother Shivpal Singh Yadav, who was blamed by Team Akhilesh members as conspiring against the CM.

She expressed desire that her son and Akhilesh’s step brother Prateek could become a Parliamentarian, while asserting she would not take any more insults lying down.

Her utterances are a clear indication that the feud in family is far from over and that there are several episodes to come by.

Is Indian print media approaching dead end?

There are many among us, including myself, whose day does not begin without the daily dose of the newspaper(s). Apart from the news content, the rustic smell of newsprint and dyes is what makes our lazy senses come alive just by flipping through its pages and scanning headlines.

Nonetheless, there are those, especially the youth and whose tribe continues to grow each day, who customarily consume their daily quota of news and latest reports on their laptops, tablets and even smartphones.

The growing digitisation of our modern lives and increasing mobility of people for the  purpose of education, career and leisure is subtly yet irreversibly transforming our lifestyle, habits and  conducts.

All these development in turn are influencing our consumption patterns, not only with regards to material items viz. food, cloth, accessories etc, but in non-material forms as well, for example news, entertainment etc.

There is no wonder that web based entertainment mediums such as Netflix and Hotstar are not only gaining in popularity among the upwardly mobile segments, but getting astronomical valuations for their promoters and simultaneously inspiring many more such and new age startups.

In this changing paradigm, the newspaper industry has been facing fresh challenges of dwindling readerships and falling revenues. The speedy pace of digitisation is further making things more and more difficult and future prospects bleak for the industry, especially print media.

Recently, a leading Indian media house publishing both English and Hindi dailies and periodicals closed down multiple editions. Many other small time publishers are already at the brink in the face of digital news getting higher traction, readership and viewership.

Even news channels have now realised that their large section of viewers going forward would watch them over much smaller screens rather than the idiot box, no matter how futuristic the TV becomes.

All the newspapers routinely upload their e-paper version over the web, while also uploading individual news items on their website to keep the reader engaged and attract greater online traffic. This allows them to also monetise their web news operations, which is already getting fortified with more staff and infrastructure.

Digital news mediums not only complement the need for mobility, but it also comes handy and at fraction of cost of a physical newspaper.

Thus far, popular social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn etc have facilitated free flow of news and informative content, both uploaded by individuals or institutions, including newspapers.

However, these social media platforms, including Facebook, are mulling strategies, which would allow them to provide news content from their own stable given the high visibility, reach, penetration, brand equity and technological edge they enjoy.

In this mutating milieu, the Indian newspaper industry is weathering headwinds, wherein only those with the most innovative minds on their boards and who are able to devise a digital model for their businesses, encompassing both readable and viewable news content, would survive.

Besides, the print media would also have to reinvent just like the cinema hall industry reinvented itself and transformed into multiplexes, which were part of a larger shopping, entertainment and recreational zones to sustain themselves and grow.

The reinvention of the physical newspaper could incorporate strategies to position it as an aspirational product rather than commodity as it is today.

The massive chunk of yet to be lettered masses and a large ageing population present a sea of opportunity to the newspapers to stay strong even in such testing times.

Those who are able to measure up to the challenge and metamorphose would survive lest they shut shop or get merged with bigger and forward looking corporations.

Undoubtedly, ‘digital is the way forward’!

Demonetisation: UP poll contestants’ number dropped 30%

Was it the positive effect of demonetisation?

The number of contestants in 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election dropped by almost 30 percent compared to 2012.

Against over 6,800 candidates fighting as party symbols or independents in 2012 UP election, the corresponding contestants’ figure fell drastically to about 4,800 in 2017.

The contestants’ strength dropped even if we considered and factored in the pre-poll alliances of Congress-Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bharatiya Janata Party-Apna Dal in the state.

There was a jump of over 52 percent in the number of candidates contesting 2012 poll vis-à-vis 2007, when 4,487 contested under party symbols or as independents.

Demonetisation, announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 8, 2016, as a major decision to root out black money, unaccounted cash economy and tax evasion, had sapped the economy of almost 85 percent of liquidity.

Under demonetisation, the high value Indian currency notes with 1,000 and 500 denomination were scrapped at one go, although people were given several weeks to exchange them for new notes or to deposit them in commercial banks.

It was already expected that demonetisation could put a tab on the number of contestants in these polls.

Modi government to leverage demonetisation after UP poll

The ongoing Uttar Pradesh assembly poll has largely been themed around demonetisation and its various apparent and implicit implications.

Almost all major political parties had carefully weaved their pivotal political messages and narratives around demonetisation to the purported benefits or its negative fallouts on Indian economy.

Now, with UP election at the threshold of culmination on March 8 to be marked with voting in the concluding 7^th  phase, the real test of demonetisation would soon come into play.

Demonetisation, which had sapped almost 85 percent of the total Rs 15 lakh crore of cash circulating in economy, has nonetheless recapitalised public and private sector banks to the brink.

The low cost deposits with the commercial banks have a huge potential to be a force multiplier for Indian policymakers to harness its many positives for a more liberal and macro-integration of domestic economy.

Since, elections were underway in UP and 4 other states simultaneously viz. Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur, the model code of conduct had debarred the central government from announcing any major policy initiative to boost credit growth and leverage demonetisation.

However, with polls at the fag end, there is all likelihood that the Narendra Modi government would not embark on the next major step of its larger blueprint to expand tax net, check cash economy, spur digital banking and financial inclusion of the unbanked masses.

Since inflation at stiff levels, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to hold on to its hawkish stance with regards to key policy rates.

This could well prompt the Centre to take proactive steps on major fiscal policy front to encourage commercial banks walk an extra mile to boost credit availability to industry and retail customers at competitive prices and to remain competitive themselves at a time, when smaller banks are coming out with innovative products and expanding footprint in rural hinterland.

In the backdrop of the slowdown in global economy and bleak projections for the coming quarters, the challenge for Indian policymakers is to prop up the sagging domestic economic sentiments and increase public and private investments to create jobs, increase income and consequently spur consumption of goods and services without spiking inflation and fueling fiscal deficit.

Besides, demonetisation is a precursor to the rational Goods and Services Tax (GST), which is targetted to be implemented from July 2017.

India’s services sector beats demonetisation blues

While the jury is still out on demonetisation and the economic cost of the most radical decision by the Narendra Modi government, the different matrices so far have implied that ‘note ban’ had not impeded domestic growth in any significant manner.

Close on the heels of the Central Statistics Office (CSO) estimating 7 percent growth in the third quarter (Oct-Dec) of 2016-17, another growth number has rather blunted the opposition charge of the Indian economy reeling under strain post demonetisation.

The domestic services sector rebounded in February 2017 post demonetisation, which was announced by Modi on the night of November 8, 2016. The services sector being tracked by Nikkei India Services’ Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) breached the 50 mark last month vis-à-vis a little under 49 in January 2017.

In November 2016, the index had slumped to almost three year’s low, but it has now entered the positive territory, although the recovery could at best be termed marginal with the sentiments still to recoup.

Meanwhile, the survey also revealed the Board rooms were still to regain confidence of the businesses going full throttle in the coming few quarters.

Yet, the entry of the index in positive zone points to businesses shifting gears and conceding to the ‘new normal’ in their contexts.

Earlier, CSO had pegged Q3 growth at 7.1 percent despite the headwinds of demonetisation and the epithet written by the opposition and some economists about the irreparable damage to Indian economy.

Demonetisation decision was taken as a radical measure against black money, counterfeit tender, illegal trading, unaccounted cash economy, tax evasion etc. In one go, demonetisation effectively junked almost 85 percent of liquidity estimated at Rs 15 lakh crore, which was floating in economy in the form of currency. The decision has already completed 100 days.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had downgraded growth forecast from the earlier 7.1 percent to 6.9 percent for 2016-17. However, the central bank is bullish on the Indian economy in coming quarters and forecast the growth rate of 7.4 percent in 2017-18.

Experts believe demonetisation could be a force multiplier for a more liberal and macro-integration of domestic economy.

The challenge for Indian policymakers is to prop up the sagging domestic economic sentiments and increase public and private investment to create jobs, increase income and consequently spur consumption of goods and services without spiking inflation rates and fueling fiscal deficit.

Demonetisation is also a precursor to the uniform tax regime Goods and Services Tax (GST), which is targetted to be implemented from July 2017.

Besides, the sale of cars in domestic market is projected to touch 3 million mark this fiscal, more than about 2.5 million clocked during 2015-16.

Bitcoin is the future currency of digital world

Change is the only constant,” goes an old adage; and this principle applies equally to all aspects of our modern lives, economy being no exception.

The ever changing economic landscape continues to acquire newer forms each day with the effect that developments that today appear near improbable could evolve into unimaginable statuses. The growing digitisation in all the spheres is another cog in the wheel.

In this context, world’s most famous cryptocurrency ‘bitcoin’ probably falls in the same category.

The rise of globalisation and the current spate of global economic paradigms, wherein there have been serious debate if globalisation has in fact caused greater economic divide between nations and between different strata of societies within individual nations, provide a perfect breeding ground for the concept of cryptocurrency to gain greater ‘currency’ in the times to come.

This past Friday, bitcoin beat gold in per unit valuation at the exchange in New York for the first time. The yellow metal had been on the declining trend over the week though. Yet, bitcoin trumping gold at the exchange is no mean development, which instead is a testimony of the cryptocurrency being accepted as a matching asset class and being lapped up by the discerning investors.

For the uninitiated, cryptocurrency is merely a digital form of currency, which could be used just like any other normal currency for settling payments between two market places, which voluntarily subscribe to it and transact through a virtual wallet.

In this process, the cryptocurrency bypasses the established financial and banking channels to settle payments between two interested parties.

One could procure bitcoin online and trade over the designated exchanges. However, there have been instances when such currency forms are used by unscrupulous elements, since it bypasses established and regulated financial and banking channels. At the same time, there are no standard parameters to fix the value of bitcoin, which in effect renders it vulnerable to volatility and arbitrariness.

The sudden surge in the value of bitcoin has been, by experts, attributed to tightening monetary controls in some developing economies viz. China, India and Venezuela, apart from the uncertainty around the new Donald Trump administration in the US with regards to his present and future economic, employment and security related policies.

Nonetheless, several countries have taken measures to regulate the trading in bitcoin to insulate their formal economy and restrict the entry of criminals and crooked elements in its sphere to dupe gullible investors.

Thus far, the US dollar has been regarded as the safest currency and asset class for investment and hedging the world over. However, with the global economic order readjusting to the emergent socioeconomics in the wake of Brexit, slowdown in global economy, rising economic might of China, protectionism streak in the US and European countries, there could possibly be the need for another form of currency independent of a nation’s official currency for trading and trade settlements.

In near future, bitcoin could acquire the same status as gold for standard valuation and settlement of international trade transactions with the active participation of all the major world economies. Bit by bit, bitcoin could possibly become the acceptable virtual coin in the digital world.

TCS-IIT Kanpur collaborate for national level engineering hub

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur (IIT-K) have jointly established a world-class educational and research ecosystem for Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) at the IIT-K campus.

This National Hub has come up as part of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which was signed between the two reputed organisations in November 2015.

The primary aim of the MoU was to foster cutting edge research on ICME-based materials and technology of national importance, strengthening research in related topics, training professionals through different training methodologies and undertake research projects, besides developing open source tools for facilitating development of materials and teaching solutions.

At the same time, academic and industry collaborations would be a key focus area for this HUB.

IIT Madras, IISc Bangalore, IIT Bombay, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), National Metallurgical Laboratory, Georgia Tech and Purdue are some of the better known academic institutions and national labs, which the Hub would be collaborating with.

ICME is an emerging discipline with large potential in materials development by integrating different disciplines to cut on time and cost required in development and manufacturing.

ICME-based solutions have potential in government sectors as well such as defense, atomic energy and railways, besides public and private industries working in the area of steel, aluminium and automotive.

The National Hub will work on providing ICME-based solutions for all these sectors.

Meanwhile, the focus areas for research in near future comprise structural materials viz. high strength steel and aluminium, composites, engineering polymers and additive manufacturing.

Digitisation, consolidation testing resilience of India Inc

Job losses, mergers part of painful transition

Winds of change are sweeping across the world of business and consequently the job market as well.

The slowdown in major world economies, including USA and Europe, over a variety of reasons and factors, are having a cascading effect globally and pulling down market sentiments and causing blip in the export markets.

All these factors coupled with the phenomenal disruptions being caused by technological advancements and galloping digitisation is having a telling effect on employability matrices.

As economy undergoes adjustments to the changing dynamics of market and consumer behaviour across sectors, a fresh phase of consolidation is slowly pervading Indian Inc.

There are confirmed and unconfirmed reports of consolidation processes being pursued in as varied sectors in India, including telecom, e-commerce, media, e-startups, banking etc.

In the telecom sector, the entry of Reliance Jio in the consumer market last year had already started to unnerve established players like Airtel, Vodafone and Idea with its free data offer to consumers until April 2017.

So far, Reliance Jio has already crossed the consumer base of 100 million and more millions would only get added this month before the free data offer expires.

Already, British telecom giant Vodafone and Aditya Birla Group telecom company Idea are exploring merger possibilities for greater synergies and cost advantages to stand up to the fierce competition coming from Jio. There are also reports of Airtel evincing interest in acquiring Telenor’s India operations.

Similarly, public sector State Bank of India (SBI) has drawn up a roadmap to merger half dozen smaller associate banks with itself. The merger plan had been on the backburner for quite some time, but things are now moving faster now.

The media industry, especially the print media, is facing a tough challenge due to digitisation of media and social media platforms, which offer free news on the go to the youth and upwardly mobile consumers. At the same time, the media consumption habits are undergoing a sea change and the media companies are slowly adopting to the new milieu.

Recently, some top notch Indian media houses not only handed over pink slips to a large number of journalists and other workforce, but even shut down operations in some major cities as they strengthen their digital offerings.

In e-commerce space, successful Indian startups, including Snapdeal and Flipkart, besides several other little known e-platforms are resorting to scaling down operations and thus cutting employee costs through rationalisation, optimization, consolidation and integration processes.

It is true that such consolidation is resulting in job losses, but once the economy rebounds and the companies internalise digitisation in their corporate DNAs, newer job opportunities with newer job profiles would get created.

Indian economy growing despite demonetisation

RBI logo

There is something to cheer about for the Narendra Modi government at the Centre on the economic front.

Cornered by the united opposition on the issue of demonetisation and the projected blip on Indian economy due to cash crunch and liquidity squeeze, the Modi regime can now take heart from the latest growth figures released by the Central Statistics Organisation (CSO) for third quarter (Oct-Dec) of the current 2016-17 financial year.

The CSO has pegged Q3 growth at 7.1 percent despite the headwinds of demonetisation and the epithet written by the opposition and some leading economists about the irreparable damage to Indian economy.

On the night of November 8, 2016, Modi, over a live televised address to nation, had announced the scrapping of high value currency notes bearing 1,000 and 500 denomination.

The decision was taken as a radical measure against black money, counterfeit tender, illegal trading, unaccounted cash economy, tax evasion etc. In one go, demonetisation effectively junked almost 85 percent of liquidity estimated at Rs 15 lakh crore, which was floating in economy in the form of currency. The decision has already completed 100 days.

Interestingly, the Q3 growth in the previous financial year 2015-16 was lower at 6.9 percent.

Besides, the CSO has estimated the growth during full financial year 2016-17 would be 7.1 percent, lower than 7.9 percent clocked in 2015-16.

However, skeptics point out that downward revision of growth numbers during Q3 of the previous year could have concealed the impact of demonetisation in Q3 of 2016-17 and instead returned firmer growth than actual.

Earlier, CSO had estimated the quarterly growth of Oct-Dec 2016 at 7 percent compared to 7.4 percent during the previous quarter July-Aug 2016.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had already downgraded growth forecast from the earlier 7.1 percent to 6.9 percent for 2016-17. However, the central bank is bullish on the Indian economy in coming quarters and forecast the growth rate of 7.4 percent in 2017-18.

Experts believe demonetisation could be a force multiplier for a more liberal and macro-integration of domestic economy.

The challenge for Indian policymakers is to prop up the sagging domestic economic sentiments and increase public and private investment to create jobs, increase income and consequently spur consumption of goods and services without spiking inflation rates and fueling fiscal deficit.

Demonetisation is also a precursor to the uniform tax regime Goods and Services Tax (GST), which is targetted to be implemented from July 2017.