UP poll: Caste, religion dynamics to crown winner

Uttar Pradesh is a virtual melting pot of different castes and religions!

In the backdrop of 2017 assembly poll underway, it is the dynamics of castes, sub-castes and religions and their play and interplay, which would determine the electoral results expected on March 11 after conclusion of the 7-phase polling in the state.

While, all political parties have been claiming of getting majority at the hustings and winning over 300 seats purely on issues of development, the reality is these parties are well aware of the vitality of consolidating voters on emotive issues through positive and/or negative messages by invoking fear and apprehensions among communities.

The issues revolving around the dynamics of caste and community are cleverly incorporated in the poll strategies of all the main political formations in UP viz. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party-Congress.

On their part, BSP and SP-Congress are making impassioned appeals to minorities to support them in order to prevent BJP from ascending the power ladder.

Both BSP and SP-Congress have given 25 percent of party tickets to Muslims although the community account for about 18 percent of the population. The minorities are reckoned as an important voting bloc largely due to the perception of the community voting en bloc for a particular party/alliance.

The two parties/alliances are hoping to get major chunk of the minorities votes by raking emotional issues and incidents to warn the community against BJP with a view to consolidating this segment.

BSP has inducted mafia don-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari to underline its pro-minority stand, although BSP president Mayawati had in the past expelled him from the party. The Ansaris enjoy considerable clout amongst the community in some Eastern UP districts.

Mayawati has cautioned Muslims against voting for SP-Congress claiming SP was fragmented following the long power struggle, while Congress was weak. This way, she warns Muslims to shun SP and vote for BSP as division of minorities vote would benefit BJP.

Meanwhile, SP, in order to confuse the Muslim voters, has alleged BSP could join hands with BJP to form the next state government after poll. However, Mayawati has refuted this allegation as a conspiracy against her party.

Although, BJP has not fielded any Muslim candidate, its leaders have claimed the party worked for the betterment of all communities irrespective of caste and religion.

The explicit urge to corner the minorities votes by BSP and SP-Congress have the potency to invoke counter-polarisation of Hindu votes and thus help BJP. BJP has raised issues like ‘triple talaq’, migration from western UP towns and illegal abattoirs to appeal to the middle class voters.