Modi-propelled BJP gaining traction in UP poll

Even as Uttar Pradesh poll is already past the halfway mark, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be gaining traction in the state election, primarily propelled by its biggest mascot and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

So far, polling in 262 of the total 403 assembly seats across 50 UP districts have been held in 4 phases, while polling in the rest 141 seats in 30 districts remains.

The UP election, which had kicked off as a triangular contest between BJP, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party-Congress combine, is now mutating with BJP entangled in only bipolar contest with either Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) or Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance in individual constituencies.

Modi has been addressing back-to-back election rallies across constituencies on a regular basis and these events get high octane media coverage, besides BJP’s own publicity organ characteristically goes the extra mile to leverage it for maximum impact and optics.

Last year, pre-poll surveys had projected BJP as the leading party for 2017 UP poll. However, demonetisation had altered these dynamics, making it rather hazy to predict the poll outcome in the backdrop of the hardships faced by the people, including the traditional voting bloc of BJP viz. small traders and urban middle class.

In this context, the pre-poll SP-Congress alliance before UP election had indicated these parties getting jittery at the probable election result, since the other prominent regional political force, BSP, was also contesting for a triangular fight.

Earlier, Congress had been readying to fight UP poll on its own and had commissioned political strategist Prashant Kishor to get over its political wilderness of almost 3 decades in the state. Yet, Congress allied with SP at the 11^th hour with the express motive of keeping BJP away from power, which showed BJP still posed a potent challenge to them.

With state polling beginning from western UP districts on February 11, the picture was still obscure. In fact, BSP was projected by political pundits to be leading its peers then.

However, as polling progressed to the central region of UP in subsequent phases, the poll tempo started to fall the BJP’s way helped by Modi’s rallies, his oratory skills, hard hitting political messages etc.

Meanwhile, the victory of BJP in all the local bodies poll across the country, including Chandigarh, Odisha and Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), have indicated people had supported demonetisation as a fight against black money and corruption. The narrative built by BJP around demonetisation had worked.

The pre-poll pact of SP-Congress has also not been able to generate the expected synergies at the ground level. Several SP leaders and even ministers have already explicitly or implicitly spoken against the alliance.

Akhilesh is fighting UP poll without the support of his father and SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav and his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav following a bitter power feud.

On the other hand, Congress president Sonia Gandhi has so far stayed away from UP poll and did not even campaign in her parliamentary constituency of Rae Bareli. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra also visited the constituency only once.